Inflation Climbs Again
Unemployment Still Low but Jobs Growth Slowing

GDP Still Growing

New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) today shows positive real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023. The BEA estimates that real GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter.  This means three straight quarters of growth, even while economists have been bracing for recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates over the past year.  The graph below shows (annualized) quarterly growth rates for real GDP since the third quarter of 2021.

GDP2023

The past year has not been a year of excellent growth, but most economists are pleasantly surprised by consistent real GDP increases, even if these increase have been relatively small. 

While overall real GDP grew at 2.0%, there was significant variation in the four components.  Consumption (C), which makes up about 70% of GDP, grew by 4.2% in the first quarter, investment (I) fell by 11.9 percent, government spending (G) rose by 5% overall while exports rose by 7.8% and imports rose by 2.0 percent.