Previous month:
October 2016
Next month:
December 2016

November 2016

Gas Prices Push Up CPI Slightly

Rising gas prices pushed up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October.  However, year-over year, gas prices were essentially constant.  In addition, overall inflation over the past year was still just 1.6%.

  Inflation1016
The table below shows changes in selected goods and services over the past year.  Notice that egg prices continue to drop drastically, but they make up a very small portion (0.1 %) of a typical consumer's budget.  Shelter (housing) prices rose 3.5% in the past year and these account for about a third (33.4%) of a typical consumers spending.   This continues the trend that began in 2010, following the decline in housing prices in the wake of the Great Recession.

CPI Table 1016

 

 


Last Jobs Report Before the Election

The jobs report was released this morning and it is not bad news for Hillary Clinton.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9% in October.  Historically, low unemployment rates have helped political parties retain power.

Unemp1016

This report could be stronger but it adds to the record string of consecutive months of positive job gains, bringing this record streak to 73 months now.  In October, nonfarm employment grew by 161,000 jobs. While many are touting this record string of job gains, we should point out that these have not been the strongest job gains we've seen historically.  For example, in the eight years from 1993 to 2000, the U.S. economy added an average of 242,000 jobs per month, versus the average over the past six years of 200,000.  That is a big difference over the course of several years.

Employ1016