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The GDP Report in 3 Graphics

Real GDP grew at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to the first estimate released by the BEA this week. This news is decidedly... not terrible.  You could spin it to be good news or just mediocre news.  But, assuming the estimate doesn't change much in subsequent revisions, we've now had two solid quarters of growth.

The first graphic shows real GDP growth since 2003, by quarter.  Recession periods are shaded and the dashed line shows the long-run average of 3%.  For the year 2013, real GDP grew at 1.9%. Though this isn't too impressive, it's understandably driven by poor performance in the first quarter.


The second graphic shows the long-run path of real GDP, going back 50 years.


Finally, we can zoom in on real GDP over the past twenty years along with a trend line.  This graphic clarifies the mediocre nature of growth in the wake of the Great Recession.  At some point, we hope that growth can restore GDP to the long-run trend line.  There just hasn't been any bounce coming out of that last recession.


Keep in mind, this is just the first estimate for 2013 GDP and subsequent revisions can be significant.